Tactical perfection: Myth or mystery?

Occasionally, you watch a football team and everything they do works like clockwork. Each individual component working perfectly, but only as part of a well-oiled machine, and so finely tuned that everything they do looks so effortless.

When I was young and naïve (in my late twenties), I fell for the idea that Pep Guardiola's Barcelona had taken football to a new level, to a pedestal of tactical perfection that would never be improved. Especially in 2010, when they destroyed Mourinho's Real Madrid 5-0 in La Liga, a match Spanish football journalist Sid Lowe described as:

"The fifth goal had to arrive and when it did, it mattered. It turned a baño - a bath, a drubbing - into a manita, a little hand. A goal for every finger. The most perfect of beatings."

Closer to home, and by the same 'perfect' scoreline, Liverpool's thrashing of Brian Clough's Nottingham Forest in 1988 - a game I was too young to remember - was heralded by Sir Tom Finney as:

"...the finest exhibition I've seen the whole time I've played and watched the game. You couldn't see it bettered anywhere, not even in Brazil. The moves they put together were fantastic."

Both clubs were virtually untouchable all season in their respective league campaigns, seemingly reaching a level of tactical perfection, each against one of their closest rivals, that cemented the idea that you were watching something extraordinary.

However, what if Jose Mourinho had played another holding midfielder alongside Xabi Alonso, as suggested by Michael Cox of Zonal Marking, to try and stifle Messi's memorising runs, instead of leaving his Madrid side so exposed through the middle? What if Clough had instructed his players to instead aim the ball for grassy fields in the clouds? Both results might have been the same, but the domination, final score and apparent tactical perfection would not have materialised. Tactical strategies and systems are a two-way, complex interaction in football, and come in many forms.

Wimbledon went on to win the FA Cup final in 1988 (can't remember who they beat in the final) and Mourinho's Inter Milan had knocked Barcelona out of the Champions League the previous year, with stifling but effective tactics.

Former Argentina and Barcelona manager César Luis Menotti said: "The point of training is to increase the speed at which one can be precise." Jonathan Wilson, when analysing the tactical trends of 2012-13, added:

"It is a truth that seems written into the internal rhythms of football: each new form is developed and modified, made faster, until it reaches a maximum pace at which a new innovation arises to replace it. What Bayern Munich have done this season is to take the Barcelona model and to improve it, not so much with technical innovation than with physical."

Les Reed - currently head of football development at Southampton - defines tactics as, initially, the basic formation, that is brought to life by the system and is closely related to and complemented by attacking and defensive strategies. Attacking down the flanks is part of one particular offensive strategy, crossing is the individual tactic used to exploit that particular strategy, and is crucial to the success of the overall system.

Professional data analyst Lee Mooney, in his piece 'Winning by Numbers', found the most effective in-game strategies and individual tactics for winning matches were:

- Short corners
- Shots on target
- Shots on target inside the penalty box
- Through balls
- Blocked shots inside the box

Apart from short corners, and maybe through balls, the rest seem fairly obvious. But, how would they be incorporated into an overall system?

After a brief discussion with @footballfactman, we came to the conclusion that 'unpredictable efficiency when attacking' coupled with 'repeatable defensive strategies - depending on the opposition' would be the most effective way for a team to win football matches.

Unpredictable Efficiency

If the opposition knows what you are going to do, it's much easier for them to conjure a plan to reduce its effectiveness. Also, unpredictable doesn't necessarily mean one player, with a box full of tricks, beating three opposition players with tremendous individual skill, before trying to beat a fourth and losing the ball. This might be exciting for the fan, but if the player's teammates also have no idea what's going to happen, they can't exploit this unpredictability.

No, within the context of the mysterious tactical perfection, the key to unpredictability is variety. When looking at Liverpool's attacking options, you can see we now have and are developing a number of players who can offer different things, depending on what's required.

Philippe Coutinho has the skill to beat a player, but also the vision and technique to pick out and execute a through ball. During his six months in the Premier League, our Brazilian magician created a clear chance for his teammates more than any other player in the 2012-13 Premier League season. Si Steers believes Coutinho's "biggest asset...is his ability to bring the best out of the players around him. He is a natural facilitator for making the team the sum of its parts."

However, Andrew Beasley discovered that the vast majority of his successful though balls and assists came away from Anfield, when the opposition allowed him more space to pick up the ball, and equally, more space for him to thread passes for his teammates to run on to and finish. Whereas, in front of the Anfield crowd, the defences were more compact, sitting deep in front of the box, inviting Liverpool to break them down; consequently, leaving very little space for Coutinho, or indeed anybody, to thread successful through balls.

When that happens, you need to try and stretch the opposition, but how? Quick, skilful wingers or wide forwards, with intelligent movement and the ability to beat a full-back on the outside, or cut inside if they see enough space, before picking out a striker (Luis Suarez, Daniel Sturridge, Fabio Borini or Iago Aspas) or late midfield runners (Steven Gerrard, Jordan Henderson, Joe Allen or Coutinho) with a precise cross, cut back or through ball.  

You can see many of these traits with Raheem Sterling and Jordon Ibe. Both are very fast, skilful and, as Brendan Rodgers suggested to Sterling last season, if they can add a constant stream of 'end product' (clear chances created and goals) they will both take some stopping. Nevertheless, the key to being efficient is to reduce waste. Sometimes, instead of trying to beat the opposition full-back on the outside every single time, and becoming predictable, the most effective and efficient option would be to drag the defender to the flank, then look for a runner in the gap between full-back and central defender; or, recycle possession and move the ball across the width of the field looking for weaknesses.

Be patient, look to probe the compact defence, try and drag players out of position and exploit the vacated space. Or sit deeper, even at home, if the away team are incredibly disciplined out of possession and frustrating you, and look to the pace of your strikers (Sturridge and Aspas especially), allowing the opposition to have possession for a period of time, before winning it back and catching them on the break with precise through balls from inside your own half. Again, this could be Gerrard, Lucas Leiva, Coutinho or Allen - all players with the vision to see that killer pass and the technical ability to execute it.

What this emphasises is variety. If, as a squad, you possess a diverse range of players, all of whom have different skills for different occasions, you can adapt your tactics, many times, even within the context of one game. Variety increases the level of unpredictability - this confuses the opposition, and hopefully efficient attacking players will then take advantage.

At the beginning of Rodgers' tenure, he was limited when it came to attacking options. As the season developed, and we signed Sturridge and Coutinho in January, the goals started to flow and the attacking tactical options open to the manager increased. With the signings of Aspas and Luis Alberto this summer, on top of Sterling and Ibe's extra first-team experience, the variety and depth has once again improved.

Repeatable Defensive Strategies - Focusing on the Opposition

Defending against Sam Allardyce's West Ham team is a totally different proposition to defending against Arsene Wenger's Arsenal. When Liverpool are up against the more direct, physical teams, it might be an idea to play Martin Kelly or Andre Wisdom at right-back, helping the team defend the aerial threat from set pieces, whereas against Arsenal it will be imperative to have pace and strength (Glen Johnson and Jose Enrique) in both full-back positions, to deal with the speed of Arsenal's attacking players.

Against sides like Man City, who prefer to exploit the space in between the defensive and midfield lines, it might be worth deploying another defensive midfielder alongside Lucas to flood the space and force the opposition into wide areas, encouraging them to shoot from distance (more on this later).

Another defensive strategy that can nullify the opposition's attacking intent is defending with a higher line, rather than sitting deep and looking to soak up pressure. To do this, the central defenders need good anticipation and recovery pace. Kolo Toure could be an improvement on Jamie Carragher in terms of pace, and Wisdom is quick, although he probably needs more experience before he can be relied upon in the Premier League in the heart of defence. Daniel Agger is one of the best around when it comes to reading the game, and with Lucas's disciplined positioning also crucial to this strategy, this season we might see Liverpool play with a higher line, looking to squeeze the space available for the opposition to have any meaningful possession.

There are of course risks to playing with a high line. When the opposition's front men are all blessed with Sterling-like pace, even if we sign one or two central defenders who are quicker than the current players available to Rodgers, it can still be a recipe for disaster because one well-timed through ball and the speed merchants have acres of space to run into and exploit.

The Penalty Box: Guarding the Safe and Discovering the Key to the Treasure

It seems fairly obvious concept: shoot whenever you get a sight of goal and don't concede many shots. But it isn't quite that simple. In fact, shooting from some areas of the pitch, as discovered on the 'Different Game' blog, is a very inefficient way to win football matches. The average for all teams, across 30,000 shots and three seasons of recent Premier League data, suggests that if a team waits for an opportunity to shoot from the central block of the penalty area, you have a one in six chance of scoring. If you shoot from outside the penalty area, the figure rises to one in 33.

Colin Trainor, another statistical analyst focusing on the location and conversion rates of shots in the Premier League, also discovered similar findings; after breaking the pitch into smaller zones, he found: shooting from central (or prime) positions is the key to scoring goals, coupled with not wasting many efforts from wider areas (or marginal) positions.

The same is true when defending. Restrict the opposition to shots from wide areas or outside the penalty box. Finally, if the opposition do get through, you want a goalkeeper who can produce match-winning saves. The website @LiverpoolScout compares Simon Mignolet with Pepe Reina last season and concludes the new recruit performed better on a number of different metrics, including: overall save percentage, the number of times he prevented a goal from a clear cut chance, and also the number - or lack of - defensive errors he made throughout the season.

How Good is Your Coin Toss?

Tactical perfection is a myth. Searching for and discovering the various mysteries of tactical perfection will always be a fruitful - but constantly evolving - process. However, remembering that each individual football match, according to Chris Anderson and David Sally in 'The Numbers Game', is made up of 50 per cent luck will, in the meantime, help football fans' sanity (or not!). In the early chapter 'Riding Your Luck' they conclude:

"We cannot control chance. We have to accept that half the time, what happens out there on the pitch is not in our hands. The rest of football, the other 50 per cent, though, is for each team to determine." (p68)

Conclusion

This is by no means a comprehensive review of formations or a detailed analysis of the nuance that exists within each tactical system and approach - but hopefully, it is a brief introduction into the world of football analytics and how that can be applied to tactical strategies that might just increase Liverpool's chances of winning more games over the long run.

Follow the author @analysesport and read more of his work at tomkinstimes.com.